Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): I have become very concerned by many mainstream climate scientists dismissing the concerns of activists and other scientists/academics, about a near future civilization collapse, inducted by the climate and ecological crisis, as "doomsterism", by "doomsters". 1/ https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1492420837970001921
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): The clear tacit implication is that anyone who mentions this possibility is an anti-science crank. These climate scientists then demand peer reviewed papers for these concerns, implying if such papers can't be cited these concerns are anti-scientific. 2/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): I have 2 immediate responses to this. Firstly, these alerts of a possible civilization collapse, induced by an ecological criss are not new, and many date from the 1970s. The people behind these warnings are not and were not cranks. 3/ https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/mit-1972-prediction-societal-collapse-b1917004.html
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Secondly, climate scientists are not expert on this topic. They only study the climate (only once component of the situation). Many have no real scientific expertise in scientific ecology, biodiversity issues, let alone the wider multi-disciplinary outlook needed. 4/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): These warnings of near term collapse are not just old studies, there are many newer studies. https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/society-will-collapse-by-2040-due-to-catastrophic-food-shortages-says-study-10336406.html 5/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): I think the reason for many climate scientists not seeing any potential for near term collapse, say up to nearly the end of this century, is because they are only looking at climate impacts, large physical climate impacts. 6/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): What I mean, is that many climate scientists do not seem to be looking at ecological impacts, which I think should include societal, political, and economic impacts. About how only moderate physical impacts, can cause much bigger impacts vial long causal chains. 7/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): I've been worried for a long time that the impacts of climate change are only seen as serious, if coastal cities get submerged, large areas of the land surface become too hot for human inhabitation. This demonstrates complete ignorance of long causal chain ecological effects. 8/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Past civilization collapses are often thought to have happened because of local and small shifts in climate. The reason for this is obvious. Civilizations rely on complex supply of food etc, and any disruption to this can cause societal disruption. 9/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/1010/climate-change-and-the-rise-and-fall-of-civilizations/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): It was highlighted at the time that the Arab Spring was possibly triggered by a rise in food prices, which was climate related. 10/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-and-rising-food-prices-heightened-arab-spring/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): At this point we need to make a clear distinction between potential civilization collapse i.e. the collapse of the organized economy and governmental systems we have, and human extinction. Many steps beyond civilization collapse, and highly speculative. 11/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): I would confidently assert that civilization collapse is inevitable unless we transition to a sustainable system/society i.e. we properly address the climate and ecological crisis. Partly because unsustainable is what it means i.e. that which cannot be sustained. 12/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Remember, there has never before being a global organized economy in the whole of history before. It only emerged sometime in the 20th Century, and previous to that we had competing powers that were often in a state of war with each other. 13/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Currently the only thing that holds the global economy, and the large nations that now exist is the pursuit of economic grow i.e. a singular aim of the powerful and wealthy and even lower orders. 14/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Self-evidently, you cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet, and with the need for constant economic growth, we live in a very precarious situation. Unless the system profoundly changes, at some point, collapse in the present system is inevitable. 15/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): In the current system, if economic growth becomes impossible we face imminent collapse. Just look at chaos a slowdown in economic growth causes, or a small hiccup like the 2009 financial crash, let alone a full blown climate and ecological emergency. 16/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): The modern capitalist world operates on a simple principle. The rich invest excess wealth, capital, to grow that wealth with much higher returns. A climate and ecological emergency, will make it impossible to guarantee a good return on investments. 17/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): A climate and ecological emergency, will make economic growth, ever more difficult. Those fixated on profit, think if he Arctic thaws it will create more opportunity i.e. profit and investment opportunities. However, all this is based on false assumptions. 18/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): The primary of these false assumptions is the stability of our societies i.e. there not being internal strife in countries, because their people can no longer afford to eat. You can have all the profit agendas you like, but it's meaningless if countries are in chaos. 19/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): This is not hypothetical. In the UK we face a cost of living crisis, with massive rises in energy bills, and food price rises that could make food shopping unaffordable for the less well off. 20/ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/03/in-numbers-britains-cost-of-living-crisis
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): As @BootstrapCook has illustrated, the less well off, who rely on supermarket value ranges, face prices of several hundred percent. The poorest in society. 21/ https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1492538937067606016
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): This is not some far off hypothetical situation, it is happening now. What is more, in the UK there is a political crisis caused by our Prime Minister, being a reckless, law breaking compulsive liar. 22/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): It's only just over a year ago, since a mob invaded Capitol Hill, and a crazed pathological lying President, tried to seize power in a failed coup, when he lost the election. If you went back just 10 years ago, and told people about this, they'd think you were mad. 23/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): We're on the brink of Russia, the US and Nato getting dragged into a hot war if Russia invades the Ukraine. Just how crazy is all this. Yet bizarrely, anyone who suggests our civilization is vulnerable, is dismissed as a doomer. 24/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/biden-warns-putin-youll-pay-a-heavy-cost-if-you-attack-ukraine
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Yet the climate and ecological emergency, which will get much, much worse has barely started to kick in and will cause increasing disruption to our societies this century. 25/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Going to the Arab Spring, long term regimes can get toppled pretty quickly if there is the right trigger. Some sort of normality was only recovered, because countries in the wider world remained stable. 26/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): But what happens if say the US burst into civil war? There are serious suggestions of the US becoming a right wing authoritarian dictatorship in the near future. Remember, it nearly happened. 27/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Whilst the current system can be traced back to the industrial revolution, the Enlightenment medieval monarchies, the Roman Empire, prior civilizations. In reality the current system only really arose post WW2. 28/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): In other words, there are many people alive now, including my parents who were born before the present system we take for granted, really came into being. It's a lot more ephemeral than those warning of collapse, seem to think it is. 29/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Once again, if you only travelled back 10-12 years ago, you'd be thought crazy if you told people what was happening now. So where does this confidence of these climate scientists who dismiss activists as doomers come from? 30/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): After all, their own climate models show things getting much worse if we don't take urgent action now. And this is just the climate component. What about the rest of the ecological crisis they're not factoring in? 31/ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/03/climate-crisis-is-about-to-put-humanity-at-risk-un-scientists-warn
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): At this point, it should be remembered, that those they are labelling as doomers, are not saying we're all doomed, there's no point doing anything. Actually, these so called doomers are demanding urgent action now, and are saying it's not too late to act. The very opposite. 32/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): What's this confidence that we're all okay, there's no need to demand radical action based on? The belief that our political leaders will take action when necessary? Explain this? 33/ https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/stockholm1972
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): Absolutely the only reason the UN formed the Brundtland Commission in 1983, whose report, Our Common Future, formed the basis for the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, was because of the lack of action on what was agreed to in 1972. 34/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): So on what basis is this optimism that everything will be fine if we just be patient based on? Remember, the activists being labelled doomers, are merely saying we can't wait longer, we need urgent action, and system change now. 35/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): The activists, and not "inactivists" as Michael Mann insultingly calls them, are demanding urgent action now. They are only warning of the danger ahead if we don't act now, to urge immediate action. 36/
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): This message is the diametric opposite of doomism. It is actually saying, this is not inevitable, but we must act now. The inactivists are those trying to undermine the activists, by falsely labelling them as doomers. 37/ @ClimateHuman @GeorgeMonbiot @JKSteinberger
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): @DoctorVive @GretaThunberg @ExtinctionR @TTTMediaXR
Stephen Barlow (@SteB777): @threadreaderapp Please unroll?